Exporter Confidence Holds Strong Despite Trade Tensions, According to ExportNZ DHL Export Survey

Despite rising global trade tensions and looming tariff changes, New Zealand exporters remain optimistic and resilient.

The 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer shows that two-thirds (79%) of exporters have maintained or grown their export volumes over the past year, and the majority have either increased or at least held steady on export levels during the previous 12 months.

The annual survey, which tracks exporter sentiment and trends also found that 59% of Kiwi exporters expect to increase their exports in the coming year, even as concerns about an ongoing international trade war intensify. Many are already looking to diversify their markets and mitigate the effects of possible future tariffs.

Selina Deadman, Vice President, Commercial at DHL Express New Zealand said,

“It's encouraging to see that the majority of New Zealand exporters have continued to ship internationally over the past year. International trade has faced increased scrutiny due to upcoming barriers, so it’s a positive indication that exporters are optimistic about cross-border trade and it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve in 2026. This also reflects the confidence that DHL Express has in globalisation and its importance in economic growth.”

Recent trade policies enacted by the USA have dominated headlines this year. When the survey was completed, New Zealand was still at the baseline 10% tariff level and the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ was scheduled for 2027. As a result, 53% of respondents remained relatively focused on the US market through 2026. However, with New Zealand’s reciprocal tariff now increased to 15% and the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ brought forward to August 2025, the rest of the year will test that exporter confidence.

Executive Director of ExportNZ Joshua Tan said exporters likely to be affected by proposed tariffs have sought to diversify by entering other markets.

“This year’s survey results show strongly that Kiwi businesses are considering new markets outside their traditional ones, with the likes of the United Kingdom (41%) and Japan (27%) both seeing an increase of 4% in exporter interest. In the case of the UK, this shift is likely influenced by the New Zealand-UK Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in mid-2023 and is starting to deliver outcomes.”

Exporters identified the largest barriers to exporting as the cost and availability of transport and logistics (49%), followed by the high cost of doing business in New Zealand (31%). The most notable shift from last year, however, was a sharp rise in concern over an escalating trade war cited by 27% of respondents.

“Increased concern around trade wars becoming a barrier was expected, with a 15% rise from last year. Concerns over high tariffs due to a lack of trade agreements also saw a 7% increase,” said Tan.

Exporters remain divided on the level of external support they are willing to accept, with a quarter (25%) of respondents saying they did not require any assistance from NZTE in overseas markets. Meanwhile, 22% indicated they would like more help with 20% seeking support for R&D and another 20% wanting access to market research.

In this year’s survey, exporters voiced strong support (32%) for more free-trade agreements with new partners, alongside support for attending trade shows (32%) as the most desired forms of government assistance to boost export activity.